Baur Priska
Forest expansion in the Swiss Alps: A quantitative analysis of bio-physical and socio-economic causes with an emphasis on structural change in agriculture
Waldausdehnung im Schweizer Alpenraum: eine quantitative Analyse naturräumlicher und sozioökonomischer Ursachen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Agrarstrukturwandels
Project Number: 4048-064360
| Project Type: |
Dissertation |
| Project Duration: |
03/01/2002 - 02/28/2005 project completed |
| Funding Source: |
SNSF , |
| Project Leader: |
Dr. Priska Baur
Phone: +41 (0) 62 865 63 78
|
Disciplines:
Keywords:
Forstwissenschaften
Ökologie
Ökonomie
biodiversity
Abstract:
Abstract:
Forest expansion in the Swiss Alps: A quantitative analysis of bio-physical and socio-economic causes with an emphasis on structural change in agriculture (Project WaSAlp) [Priska Baur, Peter Bebi, Ruedi Boesch, Gillian Rutherford, Mario Gellrich, (English)]
http://www.nfp48.ch/projekte/projectdocs/8/baura.pdf
Concept
The general research question being examined during the span of the project WaSAlp
(Waldausdehnung im Schweizer Alpenraum) is: How can we explain the pattern of land
abandonment and forest expansion during the last decades with the help of newly
available large quantitative datasets? Our target is to determine the relevant bio-
physical and socio-economic causes of land abandonment and forest expansion and to
quantify their relative impact. There are three disciplinary aspects of the theoretical
base of the project:
- Agricultural economics: It is a basic outcome of economic production and location
theory that production decisions depend on marginal yields and costs. Further, from
labour allocation theory it follows that structural change and land abandonment are
determined by the opportunity cost of labour. Nevertheless, we lack a consistent
explanation of land abandonment founded on contemporary concepts of agricultural
economics as well as a quantitative analysis of land abandonment in the Swiss Alps
between ca. 1950 and 2000. There is also a research gap concerning policies to
handle land abandonment. Of particular interest are the allocative effects of existing
agricultural policy measures which are designed as factor subsidies for land.
- Vegetation dynamics: Based on various studies of vegetation dynamics and the
invasion of trees after abandonment of agriculture land, we know that forest
succession is highly site specific. Yet, we know little about tree invasion pattern
across multiple gradients of biophysical site factors and land-use history and the
time lag between land abandonment and measured forest expansion, dependent on
land-use history and site conditions.
- Spatial modelling: Traditionally, GIS modelling has been used in combination with
either bio-physical or socio-economic data alone. GIS modelling approaches with
both bio-physical and socio-economic data is a challenge because of the problem of
integrating data of different types and scales.
Two complementary database-approaches for different spatial and temporal scales are
being employed in order to answer our research question: total area approach (TAA) and
repeated aerial photograph approach in selected areas (RAPAS). In the TAA approach
data sets covering the Swiss Alps (IHG Regions) are employed. These data sets include
spatially extended data on forest expansion and spatially explicit socio-economic and
bio-physical explanatory variables. In the RAPAS-approach we investigate forest ex-
pansion in selected case study areas at a higher spatial resolution and over a longer
time period. An important implementation activity consists in the journalistic
accompaniment of the project by the free-lance journalist Dipl. Ing.-Agr. ETH Claudia
Schreiber.
First Results and Further Expected Results
Initial results imply that modelling with bio-physical variables at a hectare resolution
and socio-economical variables at the community level can be performed and reveal
useful results. Cost and yield related variables (e.g. slope, distance to roads) have more
influence on land abandonment and forest expansion than agricultural structure and
its change related variables (e.g. rate of change of number of farms between 1939 and
1985) and opportunity cost of labour related variables (e.g. rate of change of population,
labour force participation rate 1980). Further, we have established a project homepage
www.wsl.ch/projects/WaSAlp.-
The project will enable us to localise sites in the Swiss Alps where land abandonment
and forest expansion could be a problem. It enhances the understanding of the
underlying cause-effect relationships between forest expansion and its bio-physical and
socio-economic causes. By making these drivers transparent, the project contributes to
an improved decision basis for rational policy. Assessing the relevance of structural
change in agriculture allows the evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of
agricultural policy with respect to maintaining open landscapes in the Alps. In addition,
the project gives first empirical indications about the impact of the new agricultural
policy in Switzerland (since 1993) on the cultivation of marginal lands.
The expected findings will be significant for the understanding of land-use changes in
the Alps and may have important implications for policy design: As bio-physical and
socio-economic conditions vary widely within the Alps, centrally planned policy
measures hardly correspond with local bio-physical and socio-economic characteristics.
The necessary knowledge for designing target-oriented and efficient measures to avoid
land abandonment and forest expansion might therefore rather be found at the local
level. This suggests consequences for the institutional setting, in particular a shift of
competences, finances, and responsibilities from the Federal level to the cantons and
municipalities.
Networking
Contacts are established to the following persons (institutions, programmes):
- Prof. Dr. H. Bugmann, ETH Zürich (vegetation dynamics), Jacqueline Bolli
- Prof. Dr. Barbara Koch, Uni Freiburg, referent of PhD student Mario Gellrich (remote
sensing)
- Prof. Dr. P. Edwards, ETH Zürich, referent of PhD student Gillian Rutherford
(vegetation)
- Dr. Andreas Lüscher, FAL and Dorothea Kampmann (cultivation intensity)
- Dr. Paul Harpes, Uni Zürich (spatial econometrics)
- Dr. Janine Bolliger, PD Dr. Felix Kienast (BIOSCENE landscape changes)
- Dr. Niklaus Zimmermann (co-referent of PhD students Gillian Rutherford and Mario
Gellrich), Jacqueline Gehrig-Fasel, WSL (modelling and vegetation)
On-site Research Places
In coordination with other NFP 48 projects and with ongoing partner projects, we aim to
select three or four areas for the repeated aerial photograph-approach. The main
criteria governing the selection of the case study areas are (a) degree of forest expansion
between 1985 and 1997 (> or < 4% based on the national Arial Statistics); (b) degree of
structural change in the agricultural sector (represented by the annual average change
in the number of ‘fulltime farms’ since 1985 > or < 3%). The availability of high quality
aerial and terrestrial photographs serve in determining where within a community our
finer scale analyses will focus. Two communities have been selected so far with
analyses commencing in Autumn 2003:
- Tujetsch - This community comprises 134 km2 of which, as at 1997, 1342ha were
classified as forest and bush/scrubland. This represented a 7.5% increase since
1985. In the same period, land used for agricultural purposes (as defined by the
1979/85 Areal Statistic) reduced by 6.7%. Here there was an average annual
decrease of 2.6% in ‘fulltime farms’ between 1939 and 1985.
- Soazza - This much smaller community is 46.5km2 in area. Between 1983 and 1995,
forest and bush/scrubland increased by 5.3% and agricultural land decreased by
10.7%. Fulltime farms decreased annually, on average, 8.0% between 1939 and
1985.
http://www.wsl.ch/projects/WaSAlp
Leading questions:
Wie dehnt sich der Wald in den Schweizer Alpen aus?
Publications:
Poster:
Project WaSAlp: Forest expansion in the Swiss Alps [Priska Baur, (English)]
http://www.nfp48.ch/projekte/projectdocs/8/Baur.pdf
Poster:
Project WaSAlp: Forest Expansion in the Swiss Alps. [Gellrich, M. & Rutherford, G., (English)]
http://www.nfp48.ch/projekte/projectdocs/8/Poster_2.pdf
Baur P. (9. September 2004)
Sind Stürme im Wald eine wirtschaftliche Katastrophe?
Wenn die Reaktionen malträtierter Märkte brutaler sind als
die Naturgewalten, in: Neue Zürcher Zeitung. Internatio-
nale Ausgabe, Zürich, 19.
Baur P. (2004)
Der Wald kommt zurück. Tujetsch, Poster, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P. (2004)
Die Landwirtschaft geht – der Wald kommt, in: Montagna,
4, 12–14.
Baur P. (2005)
Il bosco ritorna. Soazza, Poster, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P. (2005)
Der Wald kommt zurück. Blitzingen, Poster, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P. (2005)
Der Wald kommt zurück. Eggiwil, Poster, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P. (2006)
WaSAlp – Waldausdehnung im Schweizer Alpenraum: eine
quantitative Analyse naturräumlicher und sozio-ökonomi-
scher Ursachen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des
Agrarstrukturwandels, Zusammenfassung Schlussbericht,
WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P. (2006)
Die Rückkehr des Waldes im südlichen Alpenraum der
Schweiz: Hintergründe eines Landschaftswandels, in: Agrar-
wirtschaft und Agrarsoziologie, 2, 3–26.
Baur P.
WaSAlp, ein NFP48-Forschungsprojekt, WaSAlp Blatt 1,
WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P.
Flurnamen in der Gemeinde Tujetsch, WaSAlp Blatt 2, WSL,
Birmensdorf.
Baur P.
Alpen und Maiensässe im Tujetsch anno 1800 und 1900,
WaSAlp Blatt 3, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P.
Wald und Maiensässe in Leissigen, WaSAlp Blatt 4, WSL,
Birmensdorf.
Baur P.
Die Waldausdehnung im Gesetz, WaSAlp Blatt 8, WSL, Bir-
mensdorf.
Baur P.
Einige Muster der Waldausdehnung auf Parzellenstufe,
WaSAlp Blatt 12, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P., Bebi P., Gellrich M., et al. (2006)
WaSAlp – Waldausdehnung im Schweizer Alpenraum. Eine
quantitative Analyse naturräumlicher und sozio-ökonomi-
scher Ursachen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des
Agrarstrukturwandels, Schlussbericht zu Handen des
Schweizerischen Nationalfonds, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Baur P., Gellrich M., Bebi P. (2005)
Die Rückkehr des Waldes als Wohlstandsphänomen, in:
Bündner Wald, 4, 57–61.
Baur P., Moser T. (2005)
Waldausdehnung – Ein Thema für Gemeinden?, in: Bünd-
ner Wald, 4, 62–64.
Bebi P., Baur P. (2002)
Forest expansion in the Swiss Alps: A quantitative analysis
of bio-physical and socio-economic causes, in: Austrian
Journal of Forest Science, 119, (3–4), 217–230.
Bebi P., Baur P. (2005)
Rückkehr des Waldes im Berggebiet – und im National-
park?, in: Cratschla, 2, 14–15.
Bolliger J., Kienast F., Soliva R., et al. (2007)
Spatial sensitivity of species habitat distribution patterns
to scenarios of land-use change (Switzerland), in: Land-
scape Ecology, 22, 773–789.
Gellrich M., Baur P., Koch B., et al. (2007)
Agricultural land abandonment and natural forest re-growth
in the Swiss mountains: A spatially explicit economic analy-
sis, in: Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 118, 93–108.
Gellrich M., Baur P., Robinsona B. H., et al. (in press)
Combining classification tree analyses with interviews to
study why sub-alpine grasslands sometimes revert to forest:
a case study from the Swiss Alps, in: Agricultural Systems.
Gellrich M., Baur P., Zimmermann N. (2004)
Land abandonment and natural regeneration of forest in
the Swiss mountains: A spatial econometric analysis, Pos-
ter, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Gellrich M., Baur P., Zimmermann N. (2006)
Natural forest regrowth as a proxy variable for agricultural
land abandonment in the Swiss mountains: a spatial statis-
tical model based on geophysical and socio-economic
variables, in: Environ Model Assess, 4, 57–61.
Gellrich M., Baur P., Zimmermann N. (submitted)
Natural regeneration of forest in the Swiss mountains:
Investigating pattern and causes on different spatial and
temporal scales, in: Landscape and Urban Planning.
Gellrich M., Zimmermann N. (2007)
Investigating the regional-scale pattern of agricultural land
abandonment in the Swiss mountains: A spatial statistical
modelling approach, in: Landscape and Urban Planning,
79, 65–76.
Rutherford G. (2006)
The use of land-use statistics to investigate large-scale suc-
cessional processes, Dissertation, ETH, Zürich.
Rutherford G., Zimmermann N., Bebi P. (2004)
Modelling Land Cover Change in the Swiss Alps: scenarios
for forest expansion on abandoned agricultural land, Pos-
ter, WSL, Birmensdorf.
Schreiber C. (10. Februar 2004)
Der Wald ist auf dem Vormarsch: Grotzli, Zitterpappeln und
Alpenerlen auf Leissiger Weiden, in: Zeitung im Mikrokos-
mos Jungfrau, 7.
Schreiber C. (31. Juli 2004)
Der Wald auf dem Vormarsch. Wo die Nutzer kein Auskom-
men mehr haben, verschwinden Kulturlandschaften, in:
NZZ Online.
Schreiber C. (2004)
Der Wald auf dem Vormarsch – Wo liegen die Ursachen?, in:
Bündner Bauer, 4, 19–22.
Schreiber C. (2004)
Einige Betrachtungsweisen der Waldausdehnung: Zum For-
schungsprojekt WaSAlp, Waldausdehnung im Schweizer
Alpenraum, in: Bündner Monatsblatt, 1, 63–72.
Schreiber C. (2004)
WaSalp, in prject d perscrutaziun sur dall’extensiun digl
uaul, in: La Tuatschina Nr. 1.
Schreiber C. (2004)
Die Rückkehr des Waldes – Gedanken zur Waldausdehnung
im Schweizer Alpenraum, in: natur + mensch, 2, 10–15.
Schreiber C. (2004)
Waldausdehnung in der Schweiz. Welches sind die Ursa-
chen?, in: Wald und Holz, 5, 55–57.
Schreiber C. (2005)
Über die Muster der Verwaldung, in: Bündnerwald, 4, 65–68.
Schreiber C. (2006)
Zur Waldausdehnung im Misox, in: Die Alpen, 1, 26–28.
Source of Information: NF Import 2002
Last update: 2/1/08
Source of data: ProClim- Research InfoSystem (1993-2024)
Update the data of project: CH-64360
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