Bridging the gap between forest models and long-term forest surveys: an evaluation of different models with data from the Swiss National Park
Project Number: CH-1788
||05/01/2001 - 04/30/2004 project completed
||ETH , WSL ,
||Prof. Harald Bugmann
Institut für Terrestrische Ökosysteme (ITES)
ETH Zentrum CHN G 76.1
Phone: +41 (0) 44 632 32 39 ; +41 (0) 44 632 32 17
FAX: +41 (0) 44 632 13 58
| general biology|
The main objective of this study is to utilize long-term data on the past development to project the future succession of subalpine forests in the Swiss National Park (SNP) in a spatially and temporally explicit manner. This includes changes of the spatial patterning of vegetation as well as changes in species composition and biomass. We will base our scenarios on four existing mod-els that represent conceptually different approaches: (1) a horizontally non-explicit forest gap model, (2) a spatially explicit, distribution-based gap model, (3) a landscape model, and (4) a Markov-chain model. The input data required by the models will be derived from long-term field data available from the SNP.
The main questions fall into two major groups: On the one hand, we are interested in the past and future successional development of forests in the SNP. On the other hand, we intend to quan-ti-ta-tively evaluate the appropriateness of four different model types for assessing forest suc-cession in mountain areas.
Regarding the successional development of the forests in the SNP, we will specifically address the following questions:
1)How have the different forest communities (Mugeto-Ericetum caricetosum humilis, Mugeto-Ericetum hylocomietosum, Rhodoreto-Vaccinietum cembretosum, Mugeto-Rhodoretum hirsuti and pioneer communities) developed since they were sampled by Kurth et al. (1960) in 1957?
2)How would these communities develop during the coming 200 to 500 years, assuming that today’s abiotic and biotic site conditions remain basically unchanged? Will they move quickly towards the postulated ‘climax’ community (Larici-Pinetum cembrae), or will the current mountain pine forests persist?
3)What has happened and what will happen to biodiversity at the landscape, plant community and species levels?
4) What site factors are crucial for influencing the course of succession? Which role do abiotic and biotic disturbances (e.g., parasitic fungi, ungulate browsing) play?
Regarding the different model approaches, we are primarily interested in the following questions:
5) How do the different models perform with respect to reconstructing and forecasting forest suc-ces-sion based on long-term field data?
6) How do projected successional pathways differ when models of different conceptual backgrounds are applied?
Risch A 2004:
Above- and belowground patterns and processes following land use change in subalpine conifer forests of the Central European Alps. Diss. ETH Zurich, Nr. 15368
Risch AC, Schütz M, Krüsi BO, Kienast F, Wildi O, Bugmann H in press:
Detecting successional changes in long-term empirical data from subalpine conifer forests. Plant Ecology
Risch AC, Nagel LM, Schütz M, Krüsi BO, Kienast F, Bugmann H 2003:
Structure and long-term development of subalpine Pinus montana Miller and Pinus cembra L. forests in the central European Alps. Forstwiss. Cbl. 122, 219 – 230.
Risch AC, Schütz M, Krüsi BO, Kienast F, Bugmann H 2003:
Long-term empirical data as a basis for the analysis of successional pathways in subalpine conifer forests. Aust. J. For. Sci. 120, 59-64.
Last update: 12/23/16
Source of data: ProClim- Research InfoSystem (1993-2020)
Update the data of project: CH-1788